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Mel's Editorial#18: October 13, 2005Juniors Look to the Final, con't. With two events left to be completed, the roster for the Junior Grand Prix Final is in the final stages of development. Last week, I attempted to predict dance and ladies and this week, I'm tackling men and pairs. I was spot on with my predictions for Croatia, so I'm sticking to the predictions for this weekend in Poland and the final event in Japan. However, if Bobrova & Soloviev placed third and Lamoreux & Mee pass them to take second, both of those teams will match Pratt & Gilles' 24 points, in which case, there will be a tiebreaker. I think the first tiebreaker is the total points earned between the two events, but I'm not positive about that. Anyway, that's too complicated for me, so I'm sticking to Bobrova & Soloviev for silver this weekend to simplify things.
(*) denotes my prediction, not actual results My ladies predictions for last week weren't exactly correct, but Nana Takeda's silver medal only gave her a total of 22 points, so it doesn't affect my overall predictions. I'm not quite as confident about them as I am about dance, but I guess they're staying.
(*) denotes my prediction, not actual results It seems that only three men have a spot "locked up" in the final - Adrian Schultheiss of Sweden, Stephen Carriere of the United States, and Ryo Shibata of Japan. If Alexander Uspenski and Tommy Steenburg walk away with gold and silver this weekend in Gdansk, they will secure themselves spots in the final, without question. If one of them takes bronze, it is likely we will see the bronze medal winner in the final as well, but it will shake up the standings a bit, depending on who else sneaks into the top two spots. The same goes for Traighe Rouse and Takahiko Kozuka for the final event in Japan. If those four secure the gold and silver spots with no others sneaking in, then the final spot should go to Patrick Chan. Since I like Patrick Chan and would love to see him make the final (and not just because I cheer for the Canadian team like they're my own), those are going to be my predictions.
Pairs is more of a guessing game than I thought it would be, considering that the pairs fields at the events have been so small. However, because of small fields, some rather unexpected teams have medaled and it's difficult to gauge how this weekend and next will play out. Miller & Brubaker of the United States are coming off of two wins and joining them in the final are Russia's Simakova & Tokarev, after a very successful Junior Grand Prix debut. I am predicting Smith & Chitwood to win this weekend, which would give them 30 as well and an obvious spot in the final. Actually, any medal should take them to the final, but for the model below, I've got them slotted for first. My picks for silver this weekend are Ragozina & Sliusarenko. If they do in fact earn 13 points, that will potentially put them in a complicated tie at 24 points, but as kind of a random guess, I have them coming out of the tiebreaker into the final. If the gold & silver medal winners in Japan are Krasilnokova & Bezmaternikh and Butler & Jacobsen, both teams will qualify for the final. Namiotka & Coughlin will likely be involved with a tie at 24 points, but will come out ahead because 15 of those 24 points comes from a win. To fill the last spot, I chose Vlassov & Meekins because, well, I like them.
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